Top seven reasons why John Edwards will be the Democratic nominee:
1. Candidacies flare and die like roman candles. Edwards hasn't had his flare, Obama's will soon die down. It was right about now that Kerry began to reemerge in 04.
2. Obama's green. I don't like to think so, but Lucianne Goldberg says it, my wife says it, the writer Dan Swanson says it. They must be right. Voters will want him to season before they let him run the country.
3. Hillary has no inner life. This was the clear thrust of the big Times profile last week wondering if she's "real," or too "hardened." It is why people focus on the cackle, and her strange comment about, This is when the fun begins--speaking of the negative campaigning. They wonder if it is not a genuine expression of the hidden Nixon. I think she's such a public perso, has been for so long, that there's nothing true and Hillary going on inside, she hasn't cultivated her inner self since who knows when.
4. The south. Edwards says that the last two Dem presidents talked like him.
5. Populism. Edwards actually has a real idea way bigger than himself. It's about greed and the gulf between the rich and the poor. He can tell his personal story to fit that view of the world. He's the anti-elitist candidate, and right now that's hugely appealing.
6. Chris Matthews is excited by him suddenly.
7. Elizabeth Edwards.
He's on to something. I sense it myself. A win by Edwards would be absolutely huge, just like Kerry's win in Iowa four years ago. The expectations game is just right. Edwards has been in 3rd place for so long, that a win would catapult him just like it did Kerry. Suddenly everyone would see Edwards as a winner, as the perfect mean between the extremes of Obama and Hillary, as someone who could win, someone who is charming, someone who is committed to Democratic values, someone who could pick up some Southern states.
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