Iowa voters undecided

The Iowa race is up in the air as we are in the final month. The reason polls are not accurate until the end is because voters don't make up their mind until the end. Iowa voters are very canny and calculating. Four years ago they bet on John Kerry being the most electable candidate. This time they might go that route with Hillary, or they might decide, again like four years ago, that the front-runner is insufficient. A Hillary loss would be a huge blow to her, and she might not recover. But she'd have a much better chance than Dean in '04, who blew through his thirty million and then self-destructed with his famous scream.

This is from an article from the LA Times earlier this year:

More than two-thirds of the Democrats who voted in the 2004 Iowa caucuses didn't decide who to vote for until a month before the caucuses. Four in 10 decided in the last week. In 2004, 54% of New Hampshire Democrats decided within a week of the primary. It's no surprise, then, that in the 2004 election, John Kerry was lagging in third place until only a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Kerry then more than doubled his vote in Iowa and nearly quadrupled it in New Hampshire -- all in less than 20 days.

Iowa's Republican caucus-goers are no different. In 1996, nearly a quarter chose their candidate on caucus night or in the preceding two days; fully 42% decided in the last 10 days. And in New Hampshire, only 12% of Republicans decided in 2000 who they would support in the primary before Jan. 1 of election year.

Today the AP reports:

The extensive candidate shopping occurs as recent polls show an unpredictable race. A survey by The Associated Press and the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed Clinton with 31 percent support and Obama with 26 percent. Edwards had 19 percent.

Additionally, 10 percent said they were undecided or declined to specify a favorite, and more than half of those surveyed said they could support any of the contenders. One-third said they feel less than strong support for their pick, indicating a potential for wholesale switching as the race heads into its final weeks.

Four years ago at this time, Howard Dean appeared to be cruising to victory in Iowa, with John Kerry and Edwards going nowhere. That changed quickly, though. Kerry won and Edwards claimed second as Dean faded.

Given that history, the campaigns bombard would-be supporters with mail and phone calls. According to the AP-Pew poll, 81 percent of those surveyed have received campaign mail and 33 percent have received a personal visit by a campaign worker. Some 65 percent have received at least one live phone call.