The real reason Newt dropped out

Four days after I predicted that Gingrich was planning on running for President, he announced that he would not. Why? The answer given is that he did not want to step down from his nonprofit group, American Solutions, through which he can effect a deeper, long-term change.

It is inconceivable that anyone with political sense would swallow this whopper.

Gingrich is a smart cookie. He's been around. He knows politics, he knows strategy. He's not going to make up his mind on the basis of new information that his lawyers had to tell him right before he was planning to launch a bid.

The real reason, which I should have predicted before, is that Gingrich is in the business of self-promotion. Whether that includes a White House bid in the future is a possibility.

Newt knows he's unelectable, at least right now in an election year that will so heavily favor Democrats. By playing hard to get, and leading the media on, Newt maximizes his exposure. He maximizes the publicity for his nonprofit group--a lot more people are probably going to that website now and signing up. He maximizes his possibilities for 2012 or 2016 (he'll be 72 by then, but that's how old Reagan was during his last campaign).

And then? He pulls out right before people start to give money. Right before anyone would get really mad.

He can claim he would've been competitive. He can have the conservative commentators, and really any commentators, lamenting that he did not enter to liven up the field. He's got everyone eating out of his hand.

So savvy. I'm impressed.