9/24/07

Obama's weakness

This from Dick Morris, concerning a memo released from Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe:

I think Plouffe’s memo reflects what is wrong with the Obama campaign. It focuses on the campaign’s logistical advantages: its superior fund raising, its grass roots organization, its enthusiastic volunteers, its “financial sustainability”, and its candidate’s bio and basic message.

What it misses, and what Obama misses, is the ability to use issues in a political campaign to win votes. Obama has been totally unable to do that. He is not good in articulating the issues and far too cautious in taking the fight to Hillary. He gives every impression of running for the future to secure his eventual place in the pantheon of Democratic succession rather than fighting for the nomination today against his chief opponent.

When he scores points, Democrats file it under tomorrow. When Edwards does, they file it under missed opportunities of yesterday. When Hillary does, file it under today.

Very interesting analysis from Morris. It speaks to the desire of Obama to be president. We'll see what happens, but I think at some point Obama is going to make his move. He's got the money to make it. As Jay Cost asks, what happens when he starts spending it? What happens when it becomes a fight? Obama's loosing right now. And he is in a kind of catch-22; as soon as he starts attacking, he looses the luster of being above the fray, representing a new kind of politics. But I think he'll go down fighting before he'll just try to cruise to the Democratic pantheon. Of course, I may be wrong, and he might really be eying 2016.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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