9/9/07

Huckabee a contender?

A piece from Campaigns & Elections magazine asks the question whether the Huckster's good couple weeks could translate into primary votes. Here's a quote from the article by Dean Spiliotes, a New Hampshire political analyst:

"It's not really translating into anything. ... Nationally, he seems to be in this kind of purgatory between to two tiers," said Spiliotes. What Huckabee has done, he added, is eliminate Brownback as a competitor for the social conservative vote. "I think, for now, Huckabee is clearly ahead of Brownback. ... I just think Brownback has had trouble being pigeonholed as just this conservative candidate in New Hampshire."

This is absolutely right. Brownback has been called upon by National Review to drop out of the race and support Huckabee. It's only a matter of time before Brownback does drop out and his support moves to Huckabee, endorsement or no. And when Thompson starts his decline (it's perhaps already started) Huckabee will gain those votes too.

The Huckster's weak spot is that he's too Pollyanna-ish. I heard this complaint from a friend who watched the debate. The same person also labeled Romney as the fake candidate. Both of these assessments are right on, in my opinion.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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