Fred Thompson's announcement

Fred Thompson will announce that he is a presidential candidate Thursday, September 6. He'll have an announcement up on his website. The night before he'll be on Leno. That's the night of a Republican debate in New Hampshire. The fact that his announcement is designed to skip the New Hampshire debate doesn't exactly please New Hampshire republicans.

Daily Kos reports that the date of the announcement is strategic, so Thompson won't have to report any third quarter fund-raising to the FEC. But the Politico reports that Thompson will file a report on Oct. 15 on all money raised from when he announces to Sept. 30, which makes it a fast sprint to raise a lot in three weeks. Which is right? Daily Kos is bloggers, the Politico real-life journalists, so I'll trust the latter (plus they have a source from the campaign). I don't quite place so much emphasis on the three-week money-raising sprint that the Politico, and Glenn Reynolds, thinks is do-or-die for Thompson. With all the twists and turns that occur in presidential campaigning, we have a long way to go. No candidacy is won or lost in the first three weeks.

The conventional wisdom is that he has waited too long to declare. His national poll numbers have started to dip a week-and-a-half into August.

Chris Cillizza has this:

Lingering over the proceedings, however, is the question of whether Thompson has waited too long to get into the race. Most Republicans concede that if Thompson had entered at the height of the buzz around him -- some time in July -- he might have even unseated former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the GOP frontrunner.

But now, after a month of negative press centered around a number of staff departures, Thompson finds that momentum blunted somewhat. The inside-the-Beltway crowd -- in truth, never Thompson believers -- seem to be convinced that his moment has passed. Polling, both national and in key early states, shows Thompson in the game but falling slightly from his numbers in mid to late June and early July.