Democratic party and labor endorsements

At the end of last month, John Edwards got the endorsements of the United Steelworkers and the United Mine Workers. The Service Employees International Union, with 1.9 million members in North America, is still deciding which Democrat to endorse. They are streaming a webcast of all the major Democratic candidates this morning.

Here's a a WSJ article earlier this month on unions and the presidential race:

As the first major unions endorse presidential candidates, it appears the labor movement will once again divide its early support among several candidates, potentially eroding its overall impact in early caucus and primary states.

Yesterday, the International Association of Fire Fighters, representing 280,000 members, endorsed Sen. Christopher Dodd, energizing the Connecticut Democrat's campaign. Tuesday, the smaller United Transportation Union, which represents 80,000 rail and bus workers in 49 states, endorsed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, Bruce Raynor, president of Unite Here, which represents 450,000 hotel and apparel workers, said yesterday he favors former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and expects an endorsement soon. "The presidential process is moving more rapidly than ever before. If you want to influence the choice for the Democratic candidate, you've got to move sooner rather than later."

Mr. Edwards also has strong support from the Service Employees International Union and the United Steelworkers.

Labor experts expect other big unions, including the American Federation of Teachers and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, to support Mrs. Clinton, in part because they believe she has the best chance to win the presidency. Sen. Barack Obama is expected to get more support from union members in and around Illinois, his home state.

Within the next week, the International Association of Machinists, with 410,000 members, is expected to endorse Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Edwards. In a new wrinkle, the union will also separately endorse former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the only Republican to accept the union's invitation to address members. Rick Sloan, the machinists' union spokesman, said his organization wants to give more voice to its 100,000-plus Republican members.

"There is some division, and there's the real possibility that that's going to seriously mitigate the impact that labor can have in the primaries," says Peter Francia, an expert on labor and politics at East Carolina University in Greenville, N.C. A split labor movement could especially hurt Mr. Edwards, who many political experts believe needs to win the Iowa caucuses to keep his campaign alive.

Early labor endorsements are particularly important in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, which hold the first caucuses and primaries, because the moves let unions begin spending political funds and set in motion voter-outreach operations in those states. Voters from union households have traditionally made up a big percentage of people who turn out for caucuses and primaries.

Union leaders had hoped to avoid dividing their early support, as they did in the 2004 election. In the months before the nation's first caucuses in Iowa, major unions endorsed Richard Gephardt and Howard Dean, who lost, while John Kerry, with the firefighters' union the only major one to support him, won and emerged as the front-runner. Eventually, he garnered all labor support but by then, precious time and resources had been spent on rallying voters around losing candidates, diluting organized labor's impact.

Although Mr. Edwards has been more visible courting labor the past two years, joining steelworker picket lines and publicly supporting organizing campaigns for hotel workers, he is most vulnerable to labor divisions. "Splitting votes in the Iowa caucus would be destructive to him," said Robert Bruno, a labor expert at the University of Illinois- Chicago. He called Iowa Mr. Edwards's "best shot, and probably his only shot" at waging a successful campaign.

In endorsing Mr. Dodd, the firefighters ignored polls and campaign war chests. Harold Schaitberger, president of the firefighters' union, said he believed he has backed "the person that should be the nominee and the next president."

"It's going to be a big boost to us. The overwhelming majority of people we're talking to in Iowa and New Hampshire are truly undecided," Mr. Dodd said in an interview.

Here's commentary from the Huffington Post last month on the importance of unions:

To state the obvious, labor support means troops and money to get out the vote. It's particular crucial in caucus states like Iowa and Nevada. At this point, the conventional perception is that, if unions went with their heart, they'd endorse John Edwards. But, many of the union leaders are being influenced by the measures that are influencing the media coverage and some public perceptions: polls, money and celebrity. And, as a result, some of the unions might decide to stay neutral for some time and, perhaps, even stay out of the primary fight period.

I would also say that Hillary Clinton has a significant base of support within certain unions. But, two things are hurting her. First, a number of unions still don't trust her instincts on trade, which, for a number of unions, is a bottom line issue. Though she announced that she would oppose the South Korea so-called "free trade" deal, there is still a lingering suspicion, fairly or not, that she is much more likely to mimic Bill Clinton's support for so-called "free trade" (after all, NAFTA was promoted and pushed by Bill Clinton... And as an aside, Robert Reich, Clinton's labor secretary); unions have no desire to see more "liberals" elected who will push bad trade deals. Second, she can't shake the stories that have linked her senior advisor Mark Penn to public relations work that was done for anti-union companies (in fact, there is yet another story on the subject in today's Los Angeles Times); that fact, whether relevant or significant or not, is still lingering in the background.