Democratic debate tonight

From Chuck Todd:

Tonight, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate here at Dartmouth College at 9:00 pm ET. The Duel at Dartmouth, which airs on MSNBC and is moderated by NBC's Tim Russert, marks the sixth full-fledged Democratic debate of this campaign season (or seventh, if you count the boisterous AFL-CIO forum at Soldier Field), and the third one sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee.

The last Democratic debate took place in mid-August, and much has happened since then. The Petraeus report. The MoveOn ad that overshadowed it. The 9/11 anniversary. The strange Norman Hsu story. Clinton’s health-care rollout. And the candidates’ pledge not to campaign in Florida and Michigan.

We just had a health care debate (though not "full fledged" because there were only five candidates there), so I look for foreign policy to be at the fore of this debate.

The other candidates piled on Barack in the AFL-CIO debate in early August. He had given a speech August 1 on foreign policy, a speech of which reporter Samantha Power is seen as being the principle author. That speech is promoted on Obama's website under the title, "The War We Need to Win." But the phrase "war on terror" was never used in the speech. When Obama was getting pummeled at the AFL-CIO, he did use the phrase "war on terrorism." Here's an excerpt from his speech:

It is time to turn the page. When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on to the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world's most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland.

Obama's walking a fine line on foreign policy, one that does not impress the pundits and experts but one that I believe doesn't necessarily fail to impress voters. I'm looking for Obama's use of the phrase "war on terror" and I think it would be a good question for Russert to ask tonight--does Obama believe there is a "war on terror," or does he think it's a "bumper sticker issue" like John Edwards does? It's a soft spot that John Edwards could use to score some points, if he wants to go after Obama.

This debate could be a yawner, or it could be a breakout moment. We have about a hundred days to Iowa. If I were advising Edwards and Obama I would say pull your punches. A day is a lifetime in politics, so there's a lot of lifetimes until the voting starts. The national polls can change. At some point you want to plan a breakout and go after the frontrunner, but timing is of the essence. Ideally you should do it without the candidate being able to recover. It seems to me an attack on Hillary now will be forgotten in three months time. She has plenty of time to recover. So play nice, try to be likable and presidential. Hillary's the flavor of the month right now, and at some point the media will get tired of her as a frontrunner and want some action. At that point they will be the allies of Edwards or Obama.