Super-Duper Tuesday

Super-Duper Tuesday's placement might have an unintended effect...

Michael Brendan Dougherty of The American Conservative writes this about the frontloaded primary schedule in the July 2 issue:

In recent times, only one true long shot successfully navigated the slower-paced primary season. Jimmy Carter's name recognition sat at 2 percent when he began carrying his own garment bag around Iowa in 1976, yet he finished second in the caucus to "uncommitted." But that year featured no obvious frontrunner, and Carter's legion opponents either dropped out early, were knocked down in key states, or split the more liberal anti-Carter vote.

More recently, insurgent campaigns have consistently failed to overtake the candidates deemed most acceptable by party elders.... On the other hand, discussing Buchanan's 1996 run, [Political analyst Roger] Simon argues that the new schedule will make it easier for outsiders to crash the party. With over a month between that contest and Super Tuesday, Simon notes, "in those days, the establishment had time to rally. And on March 12, Dole easily beat Buchanan in all seven of the 'Super Tuesday' states holding contests that day. Back then, Super Tuesday was a classic firewall. If you got burned early, you had the time to gather your forces and beat out the flames."

This round, there is a strong chance that the primary season will end right at the beginning. Chuck Todd, political director for NBC News, thinks so: "If either Giuliani or Clinton win their respective caucuses, they will have essentially won the nomination. If Obama or Edwards can't beat Clinton in Iowa, they will have a hard time beating her anywhere. Ditto for Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson in their attempts to stop Giuliani.... Iowa is a must-win for anyone not named Giuliani or Clinton."