Republicans in a paradox

Republicans are in a paradox, according to Reid Wilson at RealClearPolitics...

This is a great post, in part because he interviews the great political scientist Ross Baker.

First of all, he makes the point about the strangeness of the field:

Many pundits will admit that, on both sides of the aisle, the field is not what they expected it to be a year ago. Gone are Democrats like Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. They believed they couldn't compete with fundraising powerhouses Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

On the Republican side, four candidates who might have been top competitors for the votes of conservatives have also bowed out: former Virginia Senator George Allen (thanks to "macaca"), former Colorado Governor Bill Owens (thanks to a divorce and his stand against a taxpayers' bill of rights) and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (thanks to his last name).

Back a couple years ago I thought Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack, and Mark Warner were the money candidates.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, they have four front-runners (Rudy, McCain, Romney, Fred Thompson) but each is flawed.

This is the Republican Paradox: Each frontrunner, while they might make excellent general election contenders, gives members of his party's base reason to pause. Each frontrunner has flaws in the eyes of that base that, in any other year or in the presence of a stronger conservative candidate, would disqualify him from competing.

But it is precisely because of those flaws that the candidates are succeeding: Were it not for the other three imperfect candidates, the first imperfect candidate would not be where he is.

The base of the party would prefer someone else to the top three in the race right now--is Fred Thompson that person? Wilson makes this prediction:

One Republican strategist in South Carolina, where Thompson leads in at least one poll, says people are likely to be disappointed in the former Senator: "They're really casting their own belief system on Fred" when they're unsure of his platform and history.

This will be Thompson's undoing. And maybe sooner rather than later, as the lobbying story continues.