Obama's strength will be his undoing

This post from Ed Kilgore today gives a nice summary of why Hillary, to my mind, will beat Obama. He writes:

Obama has obviously been pursuing a "total change" message, thought generally to reflect and reinforce his particular appeal to post-baby-boom voters. And Clinton has little choice but to rely on her experience in the White House as central to her own credentials, even as she tries to avoid falling under her husband's large shadow.

As a side note, the majority of voters are baby-boom-age or older, so you are at a disadvantage in appealing to younger voters, since their a minority.

The main point is that a "total change" message, as appealing as that might be to young voters and ideologues, won't win out in the end. Just as with Howard Dean in '04, voters will get nervous. It's fine to vote your conscience or your principles or your hopes and dreams when it's a protest vote, but when the chips are down primary voters have to think about electability. And electability in the general election means appealing to the non-party base, which is looking for presidential qualities. And experience is a big one. I can't help but predict that this is going to haunt Obama. He could very well have a Ford moment (no communist domination in Eastern Europe) or two. With his thin resume, it wouldn't take much. Of course, George W. Bush did well in 2000 with what one might consider a thin resume, but then again he was the twice-elected governor of the second most populous state in the union.

Hillary, however, will offer restoration (not as good as change), and her experience can be an asset, as it assures voters she can do the job.

Obama's campaign could really catch on fire like Dean's. When it does, he'll be the man, and that's an uncomfortable thing to be, as that's when the press will turn on him. Right now, I don't see Hillary loosing to Obama.