7/3/07

The money race!



Money raised in the second quarter, and the difference from the first quarter...

Democrats:

Obama: $31 million (up $5 million)

Clinton: $21 million (down $5 million)

Edwards: $9 million (down $5 million)

Richardson: $7 million (down $0.8 million)

Dodd: $3.25 million (down $0.7 million)

Biden: $2.4 million (up $0.3 million)

Republicans:

Giuliani: $17 million (up $1 million)

Romney: $14.5 million (down $6.5 million)

McCain: $11.2 million (down $1 million)

Brownback: $1.5 million (up $0.2 million)

John McCain's financial woes is the headline for the Republican second quarter numbers. Forbes makes this point about it:

McCain still raised $11.2 million during the second quarter, which is more than the $9 million raised during the same period by Edwards, who is still considered a viable candidate. In fact, this funding is more than any other candidate (except President George W. Bush, running unopposed) garnered during the second quarter of 2003--a year and a half before the last presidential election.

It's his cash-on-hand number that justifies the headlines. Forbes again:

Still, it would appear that McCain's spending pace is coming dangerously close to outpacing his collections. With $2 million in cash on hand and $24 million raised in total, McCain has burned through roughly 90% of his finances. By contrast, the eventual Democratic nominee last time around, Sen. John Kerry, had a burn rate of only about 32% by this point in 2003, according to the Campaign Finance Institute, a nonprofit organization that tracks money and politics.

The New York Times provides
Edwards strategy:

Edwards’ team posits the money is less important than the media implies, especially for their strategy. “We don’t think this is a race for cash,” deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince told reporters in a conference call Sunday. Prince said Edwards remained focused on winning the traditional early contests that kick off the nominating process — the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. “We have all the money we’re going to need to be competitive in those states,” he said. “This isn’t a money race, it’s a race to win the nomination and that’s exactly what we intend to do,” echoed Edwards adviser Joe Trippi, whose ran Dean’s campaign for the 2004 Democratic nomination.

The Edwards spin is actually right on. It's not a money race; it's a votes race, and what matters is winning in the early states. The money will come in after that. The problem is keeping up with the Clintons and Obamas--if Edwards is so far outpaced that he becomes dismissed as a serious candidate that's obviously a problem. But that's unlikely to happen.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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