Iran and the General Election

Iran is an issue that might well come to the forefront in the general election...

In discussions with a friend recently we mused about the possibility of a US strike on Iran at the end of George W. Bush's term as president. It seems likely that this is being pushed by the Vice President's office right now, and the question is whether President Bush will decide to take action before his term expires. An invasion seems out of the question, with the strain Iraq is already putting on the armed forces. But air strikes are another matter. The temptation to escalate the conflict we are engaged in in the Middle East could be very great. The rally-around-the-flag effect would still be in operation, even with war fatigue. Americans still prefer their own country and its leadership to another country halfway around the world. Escalating would almost force those against the war to back the president and the military against their will. For a president with nothing to loose, and who really seems to believe in the necessity of "winning" in Iraq, the attraction to a very rash course of action is understandable.

The candidates should be planning for this now. As far as the Republicans go, their nominee would certainly support this action. Giuliani has pledged not to let Iran go nuclear, as has McCain. Fred Thompson, Brownback and Romney have taken a muscular posture. Joe Biden has criticized the latter for it, and as for the rest of the Democrats, they would face a tougher tightrope. Many liberals in their base would be appalled. Hillary and Richardson have said that they want more talks. But I'm not convinced that they wouldn't support the troops when the bombs start falling.