Iowa's straw poll coming up

Here's a description of Iowa's straw poll from Iowavotes:

During every August in which the Republican presidential nomination is undecided (meaning there is no incumbent Republican president -- as in, most recently, 2007, 1999, 1995 and 1987), Ames plays host to the straw poll, which gauges support for the various Republican candidates amongst attendees of a fundraising dinner benefiting the Iowa Republican Party. The straw poll dates back to 1979, and is frequently seen as a first test of organizational strength in Iowa by the national media and party insiders.

This year, the straw poll will take place August 11th at Hilton Coliseum. Tickets for the event are $35 each and are available through the Iowa Republican Party. The doors open at 11:00 a.m. In the morning you can visit various candidate and interest group booths. In the afternoon you can hear each of the attending candidates speak. At any point throughout the day you can vote on a voting machine run by the State Auditor.

Pat Buchanan has a good column today on the straw poll. Here's the highlights. He starts with discussion the decision of the Giuliani and McCain campaigns not to compete in it:

With Rudy and McCain out, the pressure is on Romney, who must win. But significance now attaches to who runs second in the straw poll. For this is the last, best chance a second-tier candidate -- Govs. Mike Huckabee and Tommy Thompson, Sen. Sam Brownback, and Reps. Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul -- has to show broad support.

If Romney wins big at Ames, he will be heavily favored in the January caucuses. If he wins in January, he will have the "Big Mo" going into New Hampshire. A victory in Iowa is worth $50 million in free publicity eight days before New Hampshire, and a win in New Hampshire is worth even more heading for South Carolina and Florida.

The question that faces Rudi and McCain is this: Do they risk a defeat by Romney in Iowa, perhaps a humiliating third-place finish that dims their luster in New Hampshire? Or do they cede Iowa to Romney, write it off and wait for him in New Hampshire, as McCain waited for George W. Bush in 2000 and beat him?

Fred Thompson, too, has a decision to make. Does he try belatedly to organize Iowa when Romney has had a year's head start and half a dozen other candidates have locked up the party activists? Or does he wait in New Hampshire to meet Romney head-on?

Thompson, who has put off any announcement before Labor Day, seems to have taken a pass on the straw poll, and his late entry in the national race gives him a compelling reason not to compete in Iowa. But that would mean that he, McCain and Rudy might all three be spectators on Jan. 14, when the caucuses are held and Romney collects a week's worth of favorable publicity before the three meet him in New Hampshire on Jan. 22.

One of the comments to the article states this:

If you are going to classify the Iowa straw poll as a preseason game, as Pat Buchanan does, then you cannot rationally talk about it being critical. A preseason game does not count in the regular season standings and thus has no bearing on who gets into the playoffs.

There's perhaps something to this. Victory in the straw poll will get you free media and the image of being a winner, all of which is great, but it also raises expectations. If Romney wins the straw poll but looses Iowa next year, it'll be over for him. On the other hand, if he wins the straw poll and the caucuses, and Giuliani, McCain (assuming he's still a factor), and Thompson all sit both of them out, then it might not be considered a real win due to lack of competition, as with Harkin in 1992. The Kerry bulldozer phenomenon the last time around was due to an upset win in Iowa, and so the decisions to skip Iowa by the campaigns of Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman looked foolish, since it turned out to determine the nominee. But that's not necessarily the case this time around. The reader comment is on to a weak point in Buchanan's logic. Preseason is still just preseason. The talking heads, eager to report and comment on anything that smells of news, will inevitably pump up an event like the straw poll beyond its inherent importance.