Clinton, Romney, and Giuliani according to the pro handicappers

Taegan Goddard has this scoop about whom the political insiders think can win their party's nominations:

Political Wire got an advance look at the new National Journal Political Insiders Poll which asked congressional and political insiders who they thought would win their party's presidential nomination in 2008.Among Republican Insiders, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat, followed by Fred Thompson and John McCain, with Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee tied for fifth.

"In the volatile GOP contest, Romney’s steady rise in the poll is credited to his organizational strength in Iowa and New Hampshire and his fundraising capability. At the same time many Republican Insiders feel Thompson is a contender because conservatives have yet to coalesce behind any of the frontrunners. In the March survey Thompson was not even ranked in the top 10. McCain, who was ranked first in the poll as recently as last December, second in March, and third in April has fallen to fourth. Amid continued fundraising woes and a staff shake-up, many Republican Insiders see his campaign in free fall, but some are not ready to count him out."

Among Democratic Insiders, Hillary Clinton maintains her strong lead, followed by Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Al Gore.

"Clinton has been ranked as the top contender for the nomination in every poll since National Journal began conducting its 2008 presidential poll in April, 2005. While he is still ranked third in the poll, Edwards has lost support since the last previous survey in April."

The full poll will be released tomorrow afternoon.

I of course disagree with the Giuliani possibility, as I've said here. I've been more and more impressed with Romney lately. He's currently trading at a 21.6% probability on the Iowa Electronic Markets, and 16% at Intrade, both of which I think are low. Romney's been mailing DVDs out to Iowa caucus voters. He picked up the endorsement recently of Bob Beauprez. He lives "family values" more than the other candidates. And I just don't think the Mormonism will be such a drag. A lot depends, however, on the support of evangelical Christians, and Fred Thompson might well take that away.