6/27/07

Super-Duper Tuesday too big to matter

Super-Duper Tuesday too big...

The WSJ had a must read article earlier this month about the primary schedule. It claims that "Super-Duper Tuesday" only increases the importance of the early states. I've put the map included with the story at the bottom of this page. The article states:

On Feb. 5 -- widely called "Super-Duper Tuesday" -- nearly two dozen states, from New York to California, may hold what approaches a national primary. In 2004, just nine states had voted by then. The crush in 2008 will mean that no contender has the time and money to stump in all the Feb. 5 states with anything near the intensity candidates do in states with January contests.

This means free media will be everything. The money candidates are raising now, though in record amounts, will not realistically be able to combat the attention winning in the early states will get for those winners. Media buys in over 20 states is too expensive. In 2004 Howard Dean blew $40 million on Iowa and New Hampshire alone! The money race is really part of the perceptions race, and what it means for actually succeeding in Super Duper Tuesday is very marginal. By then things will probably be already decided.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

Election Day Countdown:

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